• Executive summary - key points

1. Galapagos at risk
2. Galapagos is undergoing constant change
3. Changing tourism markets
4. Changing tour operators
5. Local benefits
6. Financing in Galapagos
7. Fishing and differences among the Islands
8. New local operators in tourism
9. Impacts of tourism
10. Leadership and governance
11. Subsidies and incentives in Galapagos
12. Conclusion

• References

３．Changing tourism markets

　Early tourism in Galapagos was characterized by nature-loving tourists who visited Galapagos to learn about Darwin and see the amazing species that helped him to develop his theory of evolution by natural selection. For many, visiting the archipelago was the realization of a life-long dream. This type of tourist provides the foundation for the comparative advantage of the uniqueness of Galapagos; for these visitors, other destinations cannot compete. These tourists are highly sensitive to the growth of tourism and are concerned about the damage that tourism causes in Galapagos. They are also very easily accommodated by smaller, locally-owned tour operators and operators that specialize in Galapagos.

　Over time, this "pioneer market" has expanded to include more mainstream "ecotourists," who also visit places like Machu Picchu, Ngorongoro, Komodo Island, Easter Island, and Australia's Great Barrier Reef. This new type of visitor is often more selective in terms of required comfort and is better-served by multinational tour operators that can also offer trips to other locations around the world.

　Today we are also seeing new investors in Galapagos trying to enter into very different, activity-driven tourism markets. These new markets include sport fishing, beach camping, large cruises, biking, kayaking, and even parachuting. Such activities are available in many locations around the world and have, relatively speaking, little comparative advantage in Galapagos. The development of these new markets and associated infrastructure is opportunistic and reflects an absence of well-structured planning. In the short term, these activities may serve to attract new tourists. In time, however, these products will have to compete with similar offerings in other locations. This will lead to a cycle of price-cutting and increased expenditure on marketing and infrastructure. In the long term, opening these markets in Galapagos will reduce the average value per visitor and push the system towards continued excessive growth.

　This change in tourist markets is perhaps the greatest threat to the future of tourism in Galapagos (Blanton, 2006). Analyses of market cycles in other tourism markets as described by Plog (2001) identify patterns of change than are self-reinforcing and result in visitor reductions and lower revenues over the long term. Market cycling in tourism can eventually lead to complete collapse. In Galapagos this would mark the boom and bust of yet another lucrative industry, and with this collapse would come inevitable ecological degradation (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Predictive Model of changes in markets and operators in Galapagos